Jerry D. Parrish, Ph.D. is an Economist and professor within the Florida State University- Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis. He holds a research background in energy, the environment, health, and economic development and agriculture. Previously, he served as the Chief Economist and Director of Research for The Florida Chamber Foundation and Chief Economist and Director of the Center for Competitive Florida for Florida Tax Watch.
Parrish explained in his presentation the various factors that contributed to the overall economy in Florida such as the availability of jobs, consumer spending, and the decline in labor jobs such as the farming industry. Being a state driven by agriculture and tourism, these areas saw significant declines. Yet, the Leisure & Hospitality industry has not fully recovered and has seen a decline by nearly -7.8 points nationwide.
Florida has continuously seen a population increase, as it is one of the top 5 largest states in the country and has increased by 14.6%. Florida has also exceeded the national average in growth by almost 7%. But an issue in the insurance market could potentially harm the economy further for new and current residents. With the rising premiums and lack of affordable housing and available housing, homebuyers are now straining to afford mortgage payments and cancelling or postponing purchasing their homes. With rising inflation prices, as well as increases in goods and necessities like gas, these factors add to the woes of Floridians, forcing them to make tough decisions on purchasing their new or first homes.
With a recession looming soon, Florida’s economy will face dark times before things get better. Homebuyers will have to face high mortgage rates on their future homes. The hospitality and leisure industry must bounce back from the declines of the pandemic. Companies who export goods will have to raise prices to send out the products consumers need such as food. Not to forget the impacts of Hurricane Ian that ravaged southwest Florida and the billions of dollars it will take to assist this region.
But with a diverse economy, a greater need for housing, and an increasing population, the impacts of a potential recession will not be as harsh compared to other states, and Florida will be able to revive itself.